|
 |
| |
 |
| |
|
| |
 |
The history of the 20’th century is full of overoptimistic technoprophecies. How many sci-fi authors of the 50’s believed that by 2002 we’d be zipping over the rooftops of New York skyscrapers in little Jetsons-style spacecraft? What about Orwell’s vision of 1984?
On the other hand, it’s easy to forget how outlandish today’s technologies would have seemed to the average person of 100, 50 or in some cases even 10 or 20 years ago. Nanotechnology pioneer and futurist Ralph Merkle, on his website, has collected a highly amusing collection of erroneously pessimistic quotes about future technology , many of which were originally taken from a Congressional Research Report on Erroneous Predictions and Negative Comments Concerning Scientific and Technological Developments. I think it is appropriate to close this book with a sampling of my favorite items from his collection.
The poor performance of past prognosticators indicates just how hard it is to project the exactly trajectory of progress. On the other hand, those who projected interstellar space travel by 2000, but no computers or lasers or video games, might not be too disappointed when the saw the amazing array of technologies we have around us to day. The fact of tremendous progress is easy to project even if the details are not, and the closer we get to the Singularity, the more accurate the optimists will be as compared to the pessimists.
Read these examples – and tell me again that real AI is impossible, or 1000 years off. Tell me again that the death of the human body is inevitable because it’s the natural way of things. Tell me again that building novel forms of matter to order is a pipe dream. Tell me again … well, you get the idea. Tell me again why it’s better to hide our collective heads in the sand, and confront new discoveries only as they emerge each year -- than to face the inevitability of the Singularity and apply our hearts, minds and souls toward maximizing the odds that the revolution we’re creating will come out for the best for everyone…..
“Outside of the proven impossible, there probably can be found no better example of the speculative tendency carrying man to the verge of the chimerical than in his attempts to imitate the birds, or no field where so much inventive seed has been sown with so little return as in the attempts of man to fly successfully through the air. Never, it would seem, has the human mind so persistently evaded the issue, begged the questions and, 'wrangling resolutely with the facts', insisted upon dreams being accepted as actual performance, as when there has been proclaimed time and again the proximate and perfect utility of the balloon or of the flying machine."
"...Should man succeed in building a machine small enough to fly and large enough to carry himself, then in attempting to build a still larger machine he will find himself limited by the strength of his materials in the same manner and for the same reasons that nature has."
Melville, Rear Admiral George W. The Engineer and the Problem of Aerial Navigation. North American Review, December 1901. pp. 820, 825, 830-831.
The astronomer, William H. Pickering, said:
"...The popular mind often pictures gigantic flying machines speeding across the Atlantic and carrying innumerable passengers in a way analogous to our modern steamships...It seems safe to say that such ideas must be wholly visionary, and even if a machine could get across with one or two passengers the expense would be prohibitive to any but the capitalist who could own his own yacht. Another popular fallacy is to expect enormous speed to be obtained. It must be remembered that the resistance of the air increases as the square of the speed and thework as the cube...If with 30 h.p. we can now attain a speed of 40 m.p.h., then in order to reach a speed of 100 m.p.h., we must use a motor capable of 470 h.p...it is clear that with our present devices there is no hope of competing for racing speed with either our locomotives or our automobiles."
Clarke, Arthur C. Profiles of the Future. New York, Harper and Row, 1962. pp.3-4.
"The day of the battleship has not passed, and it is highly unlikely that an airplane, or fleet of them, could ever successfully sink a fleet of Navy vessels under battle conditions."
Woods, Ralph L. "Prophets Can Be Right and Prophets Can Be Wrong." American Legion Magazine, October 1966. p. 29
Thomas Edison advocated his own DC based power system, and didn’t much care for Tesla’s invention of AC current:
"There is no plea which will justify the use of high-tension and alternating currents, either in a scientific or a commercial sense. They are employed solely to reduce investment in copper wire and real estate."
"...My personal desire would be to prohibit entirely the use of alternating currents. They are unnecessary as they are dangerous...I can therefore see no justification for the introduction of a system which has no element of permanency and every elements of danger to life and property."
"...I have always consistently opposed high-tension and alternating systems of electric lighting...not only on account of danger, but because of their general unreliability and unsuitability for any general system of distribution."
Edison, Thomas A. The Dangers of Electric Lighting, North American Review, November, 1889. pp.630, 632, 633.
Robert H. Goddard, the rocketry pioneer, sought funding from the U.S. Army Air Corps, in 1941. A quote from the rejection letter is as follows:
"The proposals as outlined in your letter...have been carefully reviewed...While the Air Corps is deeply interested in the research work being carried out by your organization...it does not, at this time, feel justified in obligating further funds for basic jet propulsion research and experimentation..."
"The actual building of roads devoted to motor cars is not for the near future, in spite of many rumors to that effect."
Harpers Weekly, August 2, 1902. p. 1046.
Henry L. Ellsworth, U. S., Commissioner of Patents, said in 1844:
"...The advancement of the arts from year to year taxes our credulity and seems to presage the arrival of that period when further improvements must end."
Woods, Ralph L. Prophets Can be Right and Prophets Can be Wrong. American Legion Magazine, October 1966. p. 29
Alfred Velpeau, an esteemed surgeon, declared in 1839:
"The abolishment of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go on seeking it today. 'Knife' and 'pain' are two words in surgery that must forever be associated in the consciousness of the patient. To this compulsory combination we shall have to adjust ourselves."
Gumpert, Martin. Trail-Blazers of Science. New York, Funk and Wagnalls Company, 1936. p. 232.
Sir John Erichsen (1873), tells us:
"There cannot always be fresh fields of conquest by the knife; there must be portions of the human frame that will ever remain sacred from its intrusions, at least in the surgeon's hands. That we have already, if not quite, reached these final limits, there can be little question. The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will be forever shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon."
Adm. William Leahy told President Truman in 1945:
"That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done...The bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives."
Truman, Harry D. Memoirs, Vol I: Year of Decisions, Garden City, Doubleday and Company, Inc., 1955. p. 11.
The key device that makes long-distance radio broadcasting feasible is the audion tube, invented by Lee de Forest in the early 1900’s. de Forest was an entrepreneur as well as an inventor, and founded a company, the Radio Telephone Company, intended to create and market long-distance radio technology. When he tried to sell stock in the company, he was brought to trial for fraud. The DA, in the course of the trial, declared that:
"De Forest has said in many newspapers and over his signature that it would be possible to transmit human voice across the Atlantic before many years. Based on these absurd and deliberately misleading statements, the misguided public...has been persuaded to purchase stock in his company..."
Though he was acquitted, the judge was not convinced his efforts were worthwhile, and gave de Forest the same advice that many other technology and science pioneers have heard from their friends and family:
"to get a common garden variety of job and stick to it."
Archer, L. History of Radio. New York, American Historical Society, 1938. p. 110.
|
